Oh you are the most clueless guy on gold i know actually. I know several well connected investors as well as since decades successful traders following Gann and Cycles – and i can only say: either you are a payed affiliate of da gold cabal – or you are just absolutely clueless on golds fundamentals and what is going on beneath the surface. So just this to your subscribers: Anybody short gold and hoping for prices below 850 (or 900 in my opinion) again will get badly badly burned.
Of course not investment advise and always DYOD!

You’re analysis are amazing but only someone who really understands cycles can appreciate your work .

I have a very important issue about gold and the stock market and interested in discussing it with you, so if you’re interested my email is : maple_fan2@hotmail.com ,my name is Jim .
feel free to send me an email as soon as you see this message .

Are you offering your forecasts ?

I have long considered this big-bank manipulation of the silver market, in particular, to be a key element in sustaining, or propping up, the value of otherwise worthless government currency. This process, in fact, must be ongoing to preserve the illusion that silver (and gold) is merely a commodity (and not money). If silver were to surface as a monetary instrument, it would be “all she wrote” for the government currencies of the world.

By maintaining their massive short positions in silver, and adding to them at critical moments to shake out would-be long investors, silver continues to be artificially depressed, maintaining the supremacy of government currency. Industrial destruction of silver thus can continue until the silver stocks of our ancestors, built up through centuries of thrift, can be forever erased from existence (practical recovery being impossible from waste and sea water, and the discovery of future “bonanza” deposits being highly doubtful). This process is the essential machination of J.M. Keynes’ hatred of silver money (and that of other medievalists born and sworn to the service of kings and their government currencies), his desire to see it forever effaced from existence, leaving mankind again and forever at the mercy of kings and tyrants.

This process is now being continued, as “Jeff” points out, at taxpayer expense, as these two or three large banks are presumably major TARP recipients.

How can this destructive process be ended? I am confident that it shall continue until the exchanges themselves are closed down by physical withdrawal, and physical shipment out of storage at New York and other government controlled banks, of the metals in question (silver and gold).

Who is in a position to do this? For one, some foreign governments can, those which are philosophically alienated from the U.S. but upon which the U.S. depends for resources or to help it “roll over” its monstrous debt (Russia, China, Venezuela and Iran for openers). Private citizens also may attempt this (although they generally will be subject to future re-confiscation by government G-men acting under future emergency edicts or legislation empowering gun-toting agents to drag off, even torture, those who hold metals and are made known to the government by informers and “paper trails”).

So, yes, these silver market manipulators can–and inevitably will–be beaten, but only by people clever enough, or powerful enough, to avoid the pitfalls. Unfortunately, the great mass of humanity, foolish enough to buy into the agenda of government currency lock, stock and barrel, will be the thorough losers in the coming transition. I highly suspect that the mean American household has less than a single silver dollar (or its equivalent in their physical possession), as opposed to their American ancestors who, only 110 years ago, probably had a mean of approximately 25 silver dollars (including fractional silver coins such as dimes, quarters and half-dollars) at their fingertips.

I further suspect that, after the government’s inevitable, forthcoming attempt at confiscation of all silver and gold money, only a handful of rich families, who live “above” the powers of the confiscators–and a few extremely thoughtful and careful individuals who have amassed their silver/gold wealth without “tipping their hand” to those around them, or, of course, the government thru “paper/electronic trails”–will hold the concentrated silver/gold wealth of an entire nation (or the fragments of that nation). At least 95% of the American population, I suspect, will emerge completely destitute of silver and gold money at that time–simply because they either explicitly or implicitly trusted the folly of the silver-hating (government-currency-loving) J. M. Keynes.

About that powerplant, I’ll pitch in to put one in my county.

hindsight is 20-20. It is easy to sit back and talk about how you were right about the past, but unfortunately you don’t have a visible track record – so your predictions are as worthless as mine (unless you wish to back it up rather than blowing your own trumpet)

[quote]…On gold, I said it would rise, as it has. I had the timing accurate. I said EVERYONE will be talking, and buying, gold. Then it will drop, bottoming in June 2010…a higher bottom. Around $550 to $650. Then will begin an erratic rise, that will become steeper and accelerated from 2011 till peaking in 2013. That will be the point of global depression, marked by inflation here, and deflation abroad…the opposite of the Great Depression. In 2013 will be the start of a 3 year world war. Again…all these were said in 1999. Also, I stated that people that are jumping into gold en-masse would lose their shorts. And when it becomes time to really take the plunge; no one will listen. Much like in 1976, June, when I said that gold would go to $300 to $400 for certain, maybe even $500 to $600. It was $120 at that time, and 20 major publications came out saying that gold was dead…[/quote]

Especially if viewed in context of this commentary:

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ash030109.html

And the scenario that could possibly make gold top temporarily, would be rising long-dated treasury interest rates, as people abandon them in hyperinflation for either higher returns in equities and dividends (and possibly commodities) and/or safety of short-term 0% interest treasuries (you can hold them to maturity so no capital loss). [b]So maybe shorting long-dated Treasuries is a good diversification right now[/b]. But keep in mind that is speculative because it depends on the velocity of money. We do know Paul Volcker is in there, and he knows to raise interest rates and has said the biggest mistake we made in 1970s was not capping the gold price. But what will long-dated Treasury interest rate rises do to the financial system? Massive defaults or does that get the credit moving again because there is enough return on risk? Lots of questions that I don’t have time to develop scientifically thorough answers to. I like silver on any dip below $12. The worst downside is probably $9, and the upside is tremendous, especially if holding to 2010 when any dip in gold will be finished.

http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/February/shorting-gold2.html?o=1652087&u=7445297&l=1605124

Here is my logic:

Thanks for your thought provoking article.

But consider that the 30 million oz in GLD is only $30 billion. Figure there are maybe 100 million global investors with access, so $3000 each on average. Is that saturation in a “death of financial system” scenario? They’ve got $trillions in net worth in fiat.

Short-term correction yes. Secular bubble for gold, no. The move up has been a little too fast, correction to give time to build up more participants from the next wave of fear and the eventual run from long-dated Treasuries once inflation heats up. And that means other investments may have more upside than gold which just peaked at all time highs in most currencies, specifically silver which is still way off it’s recent highs even in other currencies.

Of course there are better shorter term speculations than gold (e.g. shorting long-dated treasuries if you know what you doing, picking small caps, etc), because gold’s role is to be a smooth interperolation of the transformation of the current global financial system. Other things are priced relative to gold, and thus will have more price action, including fiat itself.

But long term, gold is the currency, always has been, always will be. And if you want a play on that with more leverage, then silver leaves the monetary world periodically but always comes back with a venegence.

It depends on your investment goals. For me, I need my savings to represent stored labor, not extract more labor from me, chasing investments 24 x 7.

The simplest play right now, is buy silver and sit back. It is coming back to play it’s historical role as money, as it always does.

Why? Because the financial system is a Ponzi system in extremis (read the logic at VaultOz.com — apologies for the plug because that site is not taking orders yet).

I make my living programming software, not as an investor. And I want it to remain that way. I want to protect my stored past labor. And equities have not out performed generally over time.

I set out to start some preliminary research on whether this theory is true or not. I know Warren Buffet has mentioned Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) as one of those type of companies he likes to buy and hold (forever is his preferred holding time). Yahoo Finance reports the share price was 1.98 on January 2, 1962. I plugged this into the ShadowStats.com Inflation Calculator (using the SGS adjustments for correctness), I see the inflation adjusted price as of Sept, 2008 is $41.25 ($14.44 for incorrect BLS inflation). I see the share price today hit $41.50.

So all the price gains in Coca-Cola stock since 1962 have been due to inflation. No stockholder has made a real inflation-adjusted penny in equity in Coca-Cola in 46 years. I have read that Coca-Cola pays a dividend of about 2 – 4% per year, which I bet just about has kept up with world population growth since 1920. The point being that the investment would take about 25 years to double, adjusted to inflation.

Gold since it was un-pegged from a govt mandated price in 1971 of $40.80, has a inflation adjust price as of Sept. 2008 of $640, yet recently gold has been between $750 to $950. However, a 3% inflation adjusted annual yield would be $1911. So clearly gold is under performing Coca-Cola thus far.

Thus clearly Coca-Cola has thus far been a superior investment than gold, yet Coca-Cola still has not been a fabulous investment so far during my lifetime. But physical gold in my hands, has less risk than Coca-Cola, because it can’t nationalized, frozen, nor debased with hyperinflation. I pay for this lowered risk, by expecting gold not to yield anything but keep pace with inflation, which it has done.

This response will likely appear this week as an editorial published at financialsense.com and gold-eagle.com

All the best,
Shelby